PolymarketOpenSports

Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?

Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

99.9%

99.9¢ per contract

1 hour: +70.5 pts up
24 hours: +69.5 pts up
7 days: +69.0 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $593K
Total volume: $491K
Liquidity: $954K
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 100¢ / 100¢
Closes: Nov 2, 15:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?: Moved +69.5 pts over 24 hours

Moderate evidence

Observed

Established from data

Moved +69.5 pts over 24 hours, from 30.4% to 99.9%.

Established from data

Polymarket prices "Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?" at 99.9%.

Established from data

Moved +70.5 pts over the last hour.

Established from data

16:49 ET: Polymarket YES execution of $9,223 at 86%.

Plausible explanation

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

Large executions printed during the move; the data shows they coincided with repricing, which is consistent with, but does not prove, that this flow moved the price.

Caveats

Trade data covers the sampled and largest executions, not every fill.
Timing relationships establish temporal correlation, not causation.

Evidence score 36/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Written deterministically from the evidence package without a language model.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

16:49 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $9,223 at 86%
16:49 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $7,086 at 86%
16:49 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $7,544 at 87%
16:55 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $6,645 at 99%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?Sports · Polymarket ↗	16:59 ET1 h ago	Yes sell	99.9%	5.6K	$5,603	—	—	—	Normal
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?Sports · Polymarket ↗	16:55 ET1 h ago	Yes buy	99.0%	6.7K	$6,645	—	—	—	Normal
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?Sports · Polymarket ↗	16:53 ET1 h ago	Yes sell	91.1%	6.3K	$5,691	—	—	—	Normal
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?Sports · Polymarket ↗	16:49 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	87.0%	8.7K	$7,544	—	—	—	Normal
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?Sports · Polymarket ↗	16:49 ET2 h ago	Yes sell	85.5%	8.3K	$7,086	—	—	—	Normal
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?Sports · Polymarket ↗	16:49 ET2 h ago	Yes sell	85.8%	11K	$9,223	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 2, 2026 If Everton FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Source: https://www.premierleague.com/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.