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Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

View on Polymarket ↗
Closing soon — trading ends 2 h from now at Nov 2, 06:30 ET. Liquidity often thins out near the close.
Implied probability
93.5%
93.5¢ per contract
1 hour
+74.0 pts up
24 hours
+47.0 pts up
7 days
+48.5 pts up
Polymarket
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B implied probability. Polymarket moved from 20% to 100%. Times shown in EST.0%20%40%60%80%100%01:25 ET01:57 ET02:30 ET03:02 ET03:35 ET$7,566 YES at 65.2%$9,538 YES at 92.5%$9,239 YES at 88.3%$16,231 YES at 82.0%$5,000 YES at 47.8%$5,233 YES at 53.0%$2,880 NO at 48.0%

Market statistics

24h volume
$1.08M
Total volume
$648K
Liquidity
$1.11M
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0¢
Best bid / ask
93¢ / 94¢
Closes
Nov 2, 06:30 ET
Status
open
Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

PARIVISION market swings sharply after large NO trades and rapid price jumps

Moderate evidence
Observed
Established from data

The implied probability for PARIVISION rose from 46.5% to 93.5% over the last 24 hours.

Established from data

Between 00:22 ET and 01:01 ET, four large 'NO' executions occurred at prices between 54% and 67%.

Established from data

At 03:05 ET, the price jumped from 47% to 94%, followed by a drop to 63% at 03:20 ET, and a rise to 100% at 03:35 ET.

Plausible explanation
Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The significant volume of 'NO' bets placed against PARIVISION during the early morning hours may have triggered market makers or other traders to adjust their positions, contributing to the volatility observed later in the timeline.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The extreme swing from 47% to 94% and then to 100% suggests that new information or a decisive event likely occurred around 03:05–03:35 ET, causing traders to rapidly reprice the outcome towards certainty for PARIVISION.

Caveats
  • The evidence does not specify what caused the price jump at 03:05 ET (e.g., match result, roster news, or external factor).
  • The relationship between the early 'NO' trades and the late surge is correlational; causation cannot be established from the provided data.

Evidence score 41/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
  1. Large Polymarket NO execution: $35,423 at 54%
  2. Large Polymarket NO execution: $37,800 at 54%
  3. Large Polymarket NO execution: $40,905 at 56%
  4. Large Polymarket NO execution: $23,450 at 67%
  5. Polymarket moves 54% → 47%
  6. Polymarket moves 47% → 94%
  7. Polymarket moves 94% → 63%
  8. Polymarket moves 63% → 100%

Largest recent trades

By notional value
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:37 ET38 min agoPARIVISION sell99.9%8.9K$8,879———Normal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:17 ET59 min agoPARIVISION sell65.2%12K$7,56679.5%93.5%+14.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:03 ET1 h agoPARIVISION buy92.5%10K$9,53878.5%88.5%+10.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:01 ET1 h agoPARIVISION sell88.3%10K$9,23978.5%88.5%+10.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:00 ET1 h agoPARIVISION buy82.0%20K$16,23178.5%88.5%+10.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗02:42 ET2 h agoPARIVISION buy47.8%10K$5,000———Normal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗02:38 ET2 h agoPARIVISION buy53.0%9.9K$5,233———Normal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗02:36 ET2 h agoG2 buy48.0%6.0K$2,880———Normal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗02:31 ET2 h agoG2 buy47.0%13K$6,316———Normal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗02:28 ET2 h agoG2 buy45.0%13K$5,722———Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:17 ET59 min agoPARIVISION sell65.2%12K$7,56679.5%93.5%+14.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:00 ET1 h agoPARIVISION buy82.0%20K$16,23178.5%88.5%+10.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗00:29 ET4 h agoG2 buy55.8%73K$40,90545.5%36.5%−9.0 pts downExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:03 ET1 h agoPARIVISION buy92.5%10K$9,53878.5%88.5%+10.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗03:01 ET1 h agoPARIVISION sell88.3%10K$9,23978.5%88.5%+10.0 pts upExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗00:25 ET4 h agoG2 buy54.0%70K$37,80046.5%43.5%−3.0 pts downExceptional
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗01:01 ET3 h agoG2 buy67.0%35K$23,45033.5%31.5%−2.0 pts downLarge
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗00:22 ET4 h agoG2 buy54.0%66K$35,42346.5%46.5%0.0 pts unchangedNormal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗00:15 ET4 h agoG2 buy54.0%14K$7,36446.5%46.5%0.0 pts unchangedNormal
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BSports · Polymarket ↗23:58 ET4 h agoPARIVISION buy47.0%22K$10,34046.5%46.5%0.0 pts unchangedNormal