PolymarketOpenSports

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State

View on Polymarket ↗
Implied probability
0.1%
0.1¢ per contract
1 hour
−25.4 pts down
24 hours
−75.5 pts down
7 days
−51.0 pts down
Polymarket
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State implied probability. Polymarket moved from 22% to 0%. Times shown in EDT.0%20%40%60%80%100%22:10 ET22:23 ET22:37 ET22:51 ET23:05 ET$1,925 YES at 69.4%

Market statistics

24h volume
$231K
Total volume
$185K
Liquidity
$461K
Open interest
—
Spread
—
Best bid / ask
—
Closes
Oct 31, 19:00 ET
Status
open
Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Oklahoma State market collapses to 0.1% after volatile swings and large NO trade

Moderate evidence
Observed
Established from data

Polymarket prices for Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State are currently at 0.1%.

Established from data

The price moved down by 75.5 points over the last 24 hours, dropping from 75.6% to 0.1%.

Established from data

In the most recent hour, the price fell by another 25.4 points.

Established from data

Over a seven-day period, the cumulative decline was 51.0 points.

Established from data

Trading volume in the last 24 hours reached $260K against estimated resting liquidity of $445K.

Established from data

At 21:37 ET, a large NO execution of $13,494 occurred at 65%, followed by a 10-point price drop five minutes later.

Established from data

Between 22:20 ET and 23:05 ET, the price exhibited extreme volatility, swinging from 22% to 44%, then to 19%, up to 68%, and finally collapsing to 0%.

Plausible explanation
Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The significant downward trend is supported by the consistent negative movements across 1-hour, 24-hour, and 7-day intervals, indicating sustained selling pressure or changing sentiment toward Oklahoma State.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The final collapse to 0% coincides with a rapid sequence of price swings ending in a drop from 68% to 0% at 23:05 ET, suggesting a decisive event or large liquidation occurred just before this timestamp.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The large NO execution at 21:37 ET preceded a temporary price dip, but the subsequent volatility indicates that early trades did not solely determine the final outcome, as prices recovered briefly before the ultimate crash.

Caveats
  • The specific cause of the final drop from 68% to 0% is not identified in the evidence; only the timing and magnitude are recorded.

Evidence score 41/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
  1. Large Polymarket NO execution: $13,494 at 65%
  2. Polymarket moves 22% → 44%
  3. Polymarket moves 44% → 19%
  4. Polymarket moves 19% → 68%
  5. Large Polymarket YES execution: $1,925 at 69%
  6. Polymarket moves 68% → 0%

Largest recent trades

By notional value
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa StateSports · Polymarket ↗22:52 ET2 h agoOklahoma State sell69.4%2.8K$1,925———Normal
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa StateSports · Polymarket ↗21:37 ET3 h agoIowa State buy65.0%21K$13,49439.5%29.5%−10.0 pts downExceptional

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa StateSports · Polymarket ↗21:37 ET3 h agoIowa State buy65.0%21K$13,49439.5%29.5%−10.0 pts downExceptional