Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov
- 1 hour
- +22.0 pts up
- 24 hours
- +20.0 pts up
- 7 days
- —
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $515K
- Total volume
- $405K
- Liquidity
- $566K
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 58¢ / 59¢
- Closes
- Nov 9, 04:00 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Order book unavailable
The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.
Why is this moving?
Shapovalov odds collapse to 0.1% after heavy NO buying and liquidity shift
Moderate evidenceThe market price for Shapovalov dropped from 38.6% to 0.1% over the last 24 hours.
In the most recent hour, the price fell by 23.9 percentage points.
Trading volume reached $1.10M in the past 24 hours against an estimated resting liquidity of $462K.
Multiple large 'NO' executions occurred between 14:25 ET and 15:34 ET, with prices ranging from 84% to 100%.
A timeline entry notes a move from 14% to 67% at 15:20 ET, followed by a drop to 0% at 15:35 ET.
The sustained execution of 'NO' positions at high prices (84-100%) suggests traders were aggressively betting against Shapovalov winning, driving the implied probability down.
The final trade at 15:34 ET executed at 100%, coinciding with the price hitting 0.1%, indicating the market resolved or priced in a certainty that Shapovalov would not win.
- The evidence does not specify if the match ended, was forfeited, or if news broke regarding player status; it only shows trading activity.
Evidence score 37/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $5,763 at 84%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $8,929 at 86%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $9,332 at 84%
- Polymarket moves 14% → 67%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $10,404 at 100%
- Polymarket moves 67% → 0%
Largest recent trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:58 ET2 h ago | Karen Khachanov sell | 99.9% | 4.7K | $4,670 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:50 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov sell | 99.9% | 3.9K | $3,862 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:41 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov sell | 99.9% | 4.0K | $4,036 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:34 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov sell | 99.9% | 10K | $10,404 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:29 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov buy | 74.6% | 5.2K | $3,867 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:28 ET3 h ago | Denis Shapovalov buy | 32.9% | 10K | $3,406 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:28 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov buy | 59.1% | 7.8K | $4,621 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:23 ET3 h ago | Denis Shapovalov sell | 70.9% | 7.2K | $5,088 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:22 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov buy | 18.0% | 18K | $3,228 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:12 ET3 h ago | Karen Khachanov buy | 56.0% | 10K | $5,600 | — | — | — | Normal |
Most price-impactful trades
No impact measured yet
Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.