Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan Droguet
- 1 hour
- +20.4 pts up
- 24 hours
- +48.5 pts up
- 7 days
- —
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $579K
- Total volume
- $290K
- Liquidity
- $247K
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1¢
- Best bid / ask
- 100¢ / 100¢
- Closes
- Nov 9, 11:00 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Order book unavailable
The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.
Why is this moving?
Molcan market surges to near-certainty as late trades confirm victory
Moderate evidenceThe implied probability for Alex Molcan rose from 51.4% to 99.9% over the last 24 hours.
In the final hour, the price increased by 20.4 percentage points.
Trading volume reached $637K in the last 24 hours with resting liquidity estimated at $227K.
A large YES execution of $17,877 occurred at 14:51 ET at a price of 100%.
Prior to the surge, NO positions were executed around 14:00 ET at prices between 45% and 46%.
The rapid convergence to 99.9% likely reflects real-time confirmation of match outcomes or decisive set victories, prompting traders to close positions at certainty levels.
The shift from NO executions at ~45-46% to YES executions at 100% within an hour suggests new information significantly altered the perceived winner.
- Evidence does not specify the exact on-court event (e.g., retirement, set win) that triggered the price movement.
Evidence score 38/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $6,666 at 45%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $6,431 at 46%
- Large Polymarket YES execution: $9,503 at 53%
- Polymarket moves 79% → 87%
- Polymarket moves 85% → 99%
- Polymarket moves 99% → 90%
- Large Polymarket YES execution: $17,877 at 100%
- Polymarket moves 90% → 100%
Largest recent trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:16 ET3 h ago | Alex Molcan sell | 99.9% | 2.3K | $2,273 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:14 ET3 h ago | Alex Molcan sell | 99.9% | 4.2K | $4,160 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 15:00 ET3 h ago | Alex Molcan sell | 99.9% | 3.9K | $3,853 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 14:51 ET3 h ago | Alex Molcan sell | 99.9% | 18K | $17,877 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 14:50 ET4 h ago | Alex Molcan sell | 99.9% | 3.7K | $3,681 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 14:06 ET4 h ago | Alex Molcan buy | 55.0% | 7.2K | $3,968 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 14:01 ET4 h ago | Alex Molcan buy | 53.1% | 18K | $9,503 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 14:00 ET4 h ago | Titouan Droguet buy | 46.0% | 14K | $6,431 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 13:58 ET4 h ago | Titouan Droguet buy | 45.0% | 15K | $6,666 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan DroguetSports · Polymarket ↗ | 13:46 ET5 h ago | Alex Molcan buy | 48.0% | 7.8K | $3,750 | — | — | — | Normal |
Most price-impactful trades
No impact measured yet
Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.