PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

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Implied probability

0.9%

0.9¢ per contract

1 hour: −0.1 pts down
24 hours: +0.8 pts up
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $130K
Total volume: $133K
Liquidity: $1.20M
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.3¢
Best bid / ask: 1¢ / 1¢
Closes: Nov 3, 18:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

1.1¢76K

1.2¢3.0K

1.3¢10K

1.4¢33K

1.8¢200

2.1¢1.8K

2.2¢1.1M

2.7¢25.1

Buy NO (asks)

99.2¢22K

99.3¢2.7M

99.4¢735.6

99.5¢3.0K

99.6¢71K

99.7¢13K

99.8¢10K

99.9¢234K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Related markets

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine…0.4% · $1.15M 24h
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, a…10.5% · $695K 24h
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texa…25.5% · $610K 24h
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and…10.2% · $344K 24h
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, a…1.8% · $249K 24h
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and…1.6% · $235K 24h
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and…0.9% · $188K 24h
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and…0.3% · $185K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.