KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

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Implied probability

29.5%

29.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +0.5 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $1,041
Total volume: $307K
Liquidity: $4,232
Open interest: 244,545
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 29¢ / 30¢
Closes: Nov 3, 09:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

30.0¢13K

31.0¢3.3K

32.0¢2.0K

33.0¢0

34.0¢89.3

35.0¢125

36.0¢0

37.0¢45

Buy NO (asks)

71.0¢1.2K

72.0¢1.1K

73.0¢91K

74.0¢15K

75.0¢8.7K

76.0¢696

77.0¢1.1K

78.0¢724.3

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

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Most price-impactful trades

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Matched market

No equivalent contract found

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Resolution

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

Source: https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.