KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

13.5%

13.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −1.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $6,486
Total volume: $259K
Liquidity: $3,450
Open interest: 149,203
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 13¢ / 14¢
Closes: Nov 3, 09:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

14.0¢35K

15.0¢6.4K

16.0¢29K

17.0¢5

18.0¢18.2

19.0¢230

20.0¢200

21.0¢139.1

Buy NO (asks)

87.0¢2.5K

88.0¢1.9K

89.0¢175

90.0¢295

91.0¢200

91.7¢71

91.8¢139

91.9¢1.4K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

Source: https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/

Related markets

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vo…5.1% · $168K 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…7.3% · $79,565 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…13.5% · $32,947 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…24.5% · $30,293 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…6.1% · $22,156 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…27.5% · $20,945 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…3.4% · $13,307 24h
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives…1.3% · $11,985 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.