KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?

PA-01 House winner?

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Implied probability

45.5%

45.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −1.5 pts down
7 days: −12.0 pts down

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $8,605
Total volume: $140K
Liquidity: $1,204
Open interest: 96,778
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 45¢ / 46¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

47.0¢2.6K

48.0¢57K

49.0¢21K

50.0¢731

51.0¢114.6

52.0¢5.5K

53.0¢103.1

54.0¢46

Buy NO (asks)

54.0¢42.2

55.0¢21K

56.0¢5.3K

57.0¢56K

58.0¢1.0K

60.0¢250

61.0¢5.5K

64.0¢1.7

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the House member sworn in for PA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.