KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?

Florida Senate winner?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

14.5%

14.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +2.5 pts up
7 days: +3.0 pts up

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $315K
Total volume: $2.20M
Liquidity: $23,643
Open interest: 1,733,578
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 14¢ / 15¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

15.0¢41K

16.0¢165K

17.0¢61K

18.0¢1.7K

19.0¢6.0K

20.0¢3.2K

21.0¢1.5K

22.0¢453.9

Buy NO (asks)

86.0¢59K

87.0¢27K

88.0¢59K

89.0¢39K

90.0¢56K

90.1¢20

90.6¢5.5K

90.7¢1.2K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

17:20 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,222 at 89%
19:06 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $6,600 at 88%
23:02 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $4,264 at 86%
08:07 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $1,959 at 86%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	08:07 ET2 h ago	No sell	86.0%	2.3K	$1,959	—	—	—	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	23:02 ET11 h ago	No sell	86.0%	5.0K	$4,264	—	—	—	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	19:06 ET15 h ago	No sell	88.0%	7.5K	$6,600	—	—	—	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	17:20 ET17 h ago	No sell	89.0%	2.5K	$2,222	—	—	—	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	05:34 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	12.0%	19K	$2,316	—	—	—	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	22:32 ET2 d ago	No sell	89.0%	13K	$11,922	11.5%	11.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	22:32 ET2 d ago	No sell	89.0%	20K	$18,021	11.5%	11.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	22:32 ET2 d ago	No sell	89.0%	13K	$11,922	11.5%	11.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?Politics · Kalshi ↗	22:32 ET2 d ago	No sell	89.0%	20K	$18,021	11.5%	11.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Florida pursuant to the Class III (special election) held on November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

Related markets

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?85.5% · $239K 24h
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?6.0% · $6.07M 24h
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?0.4% · $3.85M 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?25.5% · $3.40M 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?22.5% · $3.39M 24h
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?6.3% · $3.13M 24h
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?75.5% · $2.38M 24h
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?77.5% · $2.16M 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.