Grade C · 62%RelatedOutcome mapping: inverse
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Tom Nolan wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
Kalshi 99.0% vs Polymarket 55.5% on Tom Nolan wins — a 43.5 point prediction-market gap.
Live comparison
Kalshi
99.0%
—Polymarket
55.5%
+2.0 pts up- Disagreement
- 43.5 pts
- Match confidence
- 62%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
Both venues on one axis, with the gap beneath
KalshiPolymarket
No history available for this range yet.
How confident is this match?
Deterministic scoring first; the model may only downgrade
- Title
- 65%
- Entities
- 20%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 85%
- Rules
- 48%
Deterministic score 62%. Not yet semantically verified.
Soft flags
- resolution_sources_differ
- tie_handling_differs
- data_release_rules_differ
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
These contracts have not been semantically verified yet, so no rule-by-rule comparison is available. The grade rests on deterministic scoring alone.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Grade A pairs only, from executable book prices with depth simulation
Theoretical edge is calculated only for Grade A pairs, where the two contracts appear materially equivalent for settlement analysis. This pair is graded C, so the venues are compared for probability and sentiment only.
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
No timeline events yet
Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
Past 24 hours, ranked by notional
| Market | Venue | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:28 ET4 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 45.0% | 121K | $54,295 | 55.5% | 71.5% | +16.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:29 ET4 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 45.0% | 107K | $48,055 | 54.5% | 64.0% | +9.5 pts up | Exceptional |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:28 ET4 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 45.0% | 73K | $32,770 | 55.5% | 71.5% | +16.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:29 ET4 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 45.0% | 18K | $7,891 | 54.5% | 64.0% | +9.5 pts up | Exceptional |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:29 ET4 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 45.0% | 18K | $7,886 | 54.5% | 64.0% | +9.5 pts up | Exceptional |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:40 ET3 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 31.0% | 24K | $7,552 | 70.0% | 0.5% | −69.5 pts down | Exceptional |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 23:05 ET3 h ago | Tom Nolan sell | 99.9% | 2.6K | $2,562 | — | — | — | Normal |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:42 ET3 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 72.0% | 3.0K | $2,135 | — | — | — | Normal |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:44 ET3 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 98.3% | 2.0K | $1,924 | — | — | — | Normal |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:43 ET3 h ago | Tom Nolan buy | 86.4% | 2.2K | $1,920 | — | — | — | Normal |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Polymarket ↗ | Polymarket | 22:48 ET3 h ago | Tom Nolan sell | 99.9% | 1.7K | $1,730 | — | — | — | Normal |