Kalshi vs Polymarket: Northern Illinois vs. UNLV
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 98.9 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 84%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 85%
- Rules
- 69%
Deterministic score 87%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Nov 1, 01:04 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly specify tie resolution (implied 'fair price' or undefined if not covered by postponement/cancellation clauses), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties as 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window for postponed games to remain open; if cancelled or not started within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion if postponed, and resolves 50-50 only if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Resolution Source Authority: Kalshi uses NCAA.com but includes a disclaimer of non-affiliation. Polymarket also uses NCAA.com. While similar, the explicit 'fair price' mechanism in Kalshi for cancellations differs from Polymarket's fixed 50-50 outcome.
- Close Time Discrepancy: Kalshi closes at 2026-11-03 02:30 UTC, while Polymarket closes at 2026-11-01 02:30 UTC. This affects tradability windows relative to the event date.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly specify tie resolution (implied 'fair price' or undefined if not covered by postponement/cancellation clauses), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for make-up games; if the game starts after this window or is cancelled without a start within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion and resolves to 50-50 only if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi specifies `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`, while Polymarket specifies `ncaa.com` (broader).
- Contract Structure: Kalshi is a binary market on UNLV winning (YES=UNLV wins, NO=UNLV does not win). Polymarket is a two-sided market where YES=Northern Illinois wins and NO=UNLV wins. While logically related, the settlement mechanics for non-win outcomes (ties, cancellations) differ significantly.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie outcome (implying 'No' for UNLV wins or potentially ambiguous resolution), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window rule; if the game starts within 48 hours it resolves on result, otherwise it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion, and resolves 50-50 only if canceled entirely with no make-up game.
- Resolution Source Authority: Kalshi cites NCAA.com but includes a disclaimer about non-affiliation. Polymarket cites NCAA.com directly. While likely similar, the explicit 'fair price' mechanism in Kalshi for long delays differs from Polymarket's binary/50-50 structure.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state tie resolution (implied by 'fair price' or standard binary logic often resulting in NO if not a win, but ambiguous), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing rules on tie outcomes (Polymarket specifies 50-50, Kalshi is silent/implies fair price) and cancellation/postponement protocols (Kalshi has a strict 48-hour rule leading to 'fair price', Polymarket stays open indefinitely or resolves 50-50). Additionally, the close times differ significantly.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
No timeline events yet
Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.