PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Next French Presidential Election

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Implied probability

40.5%

40.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: −3.5 pts down

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $36,810
Total volume: $4.81M
Liquidity: $664K
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 40¢ / 41¢
Closes: Apr 18, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

40.5¢14K

40.6¢19K

40.9¢10

41.0¢1.2K

41.1¢1.0K

41.2¢4.4K

41.3¢100

41.4¢502

Buy NO (asks)

59.6¢13K

59.7¢44.7

59.8¢10

59.9¢500

60.0¢727.1

60.1¢1.4K

60.2¢14K

60.3¢460

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Source: https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.