PolymarketOpenPoliticsGrade B · 0%

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

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Implied probability

0.4%

0.4¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +0.1 pts up
7 days: +0.1 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $1,331
Total volume: $17.42M
Liquidity: $2.02M
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.2¢
Best bid / ask: 0¢ / 1¢
Closes: Nov 7, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

0.5¢9.3K

0.6¢13K

0.7¢39K

0.8¢191K

0.9¢571K

1.0¢3.1K

1.1¢3.0K

1.4¢5.9K

Buy NO (asks)

99.7¢2.4K

99.8¢83K

99.9¢520K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched on the other venue

Will Chris Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

KalshiGrade B · 0%

Compare venues →

Resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.