PolymarketOpenWorld

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

1.9%

1.9¢ per contract

1 hour: −0.1 pts down
24 hours: −0.1 pts down
7 days: −0.3 pts down

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $40,411
Total volume: $45.47M
Liquidity: $318K
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.2¢
Best bid / ask: 2¢ / 2¢
Closes: Dec 31, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

2.0¢2.4K

2.1¢2.1K

2.2¢2.1K

2.3¢24K

2.4¢9.1K

2.5¢1.4K

2.6¢1.6K

2.7¢42K

Buy NO (asks)

98.2¢14K

98.3¢64K

98.4¢26K

98.5¢29K

98.6¢15K

98.7¢19K

98.8¢131K

98.9¢44K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Related markets

Coastal Carolina vs. Delaware0.1% · $746K 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?0.4% · $446K 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?99.8% · $445K 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?12.5% · $350K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?98.3% · $305K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?99.9% · $302K 24h
Spread: Delaware (-4.5)99.9% · $265K 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?97.6% · $235K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.