PolymarketOpenSports

Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov

Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov

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Implied probability

58.0%

58.0¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $8,671
Total volume: $8,671
Liquidity: $6,300
Open interest: —
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Oct 11, 00:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

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Largest recent trades

By notional value

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Most price-impactful trades

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No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set. It will resolve to “Denis Shapovalov” if Denis Shapovalov wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Related markets

Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov99.9% · $523K 24h
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Denis Shapovalov (+5.5)46.5% · $17,710 24h
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov42.0% · $11,407 24h
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapo…99.0% · $7,980 24h
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Denis Shapovalov (+1.5)80.0% · $3,823 24h
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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.