KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

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Implied probability

43.5%

43.5¢ per contract

1 hour: −13.0 pts down
24 hours: +4.5 pts up
7 days: +6.0 pts up

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $8,969
Total volume: $145K
Liquidity: $9.00
Open interest: 31,896
Spread: 9.0¢
Best bid / ask: 39¢ / 48¢
Closes: Jan 20, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

47.0¢1

48.0¢6

49.0¢22

50.0¢229

63.0¢71.2

64.0¢262.8

65.0¢128.1

66.0¢52.3

Buy NO (asks)

59.0¢14

60.0¢19

61.0¢25

62.0¢75

63.0¢230

64.0¢33.2

65.0¢45.8

66.0¢342.3

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

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Event timeline

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Largest recent trades

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Most price-impactful trades

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No impact measured yet

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Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place. Clarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose "verifiable…

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.