Will the S&P 500 be above 7589.9999 on Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST?
S&P price on Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- 1 hour
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- 24 hours
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- 7 days
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Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $114K
- Total volume
- $114K
- Liquidity
- $123
- Open interest
- 103,505
- Spread
- 2.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 18¢ / 20¢
- Closes
- Nov 2, 16:00 ET
- Status
- closed
Order book
Order book unavailable
The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.
Why is this moving?
S&P 500 threshold market surges to 94% on thin volume
Weak evidenceThe Kalshi implied probability for the S&P 500 exceeding 7589.9999 on Nov 2, 2026, is currently priced at 94.0%. [p1]
Over the past 24 hours, the market price moved +48.0 points, rising from 46.0% to 94.0%. [m24]
The 24-hour trading volume for this market was $101K. [v1]
Estimated resting liquidity stands at $194K, with a bid-ask spread of 4.0¢. [l1][s1]
The sharp +48.0 point increase in probability occurred alongside relatively low 24-hour volume ($101K) compared to resting liquidity ($194K), suggesting that limited order flow may have driven significant price movement due to thin market depth. [m24][v1][l1]
- Evidence does not identify specific news or fundamental drivers behind the price shift.
Evidence score 9/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Kalshi moves 18% → 1%
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