Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28389.99 at the end of Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Nasdaq-100 price on Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- 1 hour
- −26.0 pts down
- 24 hours
- +9.5 pts up
- 7 days
- —
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $103K
- Total volume
- $103K
- Liquidity
- $59,173
- Open interest
- 102,714
- Spread
- 3.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 56¢ / 59¢
- Closes
- Nov 2, 16:00 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Why is this moving?
Nasdaq-100 market probability surges to 83.5% before recent pullback
Weak evidenceThe implied probability for the Nasdaq-100 exceeding 28,389.99 on Nov 2, 2026, is currently 83.5%.
Over the past 24 hours, the probability increased by 35.5 percentage points, rising from 48.0% to 83.5%.
In the most recent hour, the probability decreased by 5.5 percentage points.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours totaled $102K, with estimated resting liquidity at $167K and a bid-ask spread of 5.0 cents.
The significant 24-hour increase in implied probability suggests that market participants collectively revised their expectations upward regarding the index's performance relative to the threshold.
The recent hourly decline indicates a partial retracement or adjustment following the earlier surge, though the overall probability remains high compared to the previous day.
- The provided evidence does not include specific news events, economic data releases, or corporate earnings reports that may have driven the sentiment shift.
- Market movements are influenced by numerous factors; the observed price changes reflect aggregate participant behavior rather than isolated causes.
Evidence score 9/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Kalshi moves 56% → 61%
- Kalshi moves 61% → 57%
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