KalshiOpenWeather

Will the maximum temperature be >70° on Nov 1, 2026?

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 1, 2026?

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Closing soon — trading ends 8 h from now at Nov 2, 04:00 ET. Liquidity often thins out near the close.

Implied probability

99.0%

99.0¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +39.0 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $42,726
Total volume: $44,589
Liquidity: $147K
Open interest: 22,319
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Nov 2, 04:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

No resting size

Buy NO (asks)

1.0¢136K

2.0¢535

3.0¢219

5.0¢2

6.0¢350

7.0¢107

9.0¢40

10.0¢10

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 1, 2026, is greater than 70° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.

Source: https://weather.com/kalshi

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.