KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points?

Texas Senate margin of victory

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Implied probability

55.5%

55.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −1.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $14,315
Total volume: $249K
Liquidity: $280
Open interest: 142,182
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 55¢ / 56¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

56.0¢568.4

57.0¢723.8

58.0¢239.4

59.0¢1.2K

60.0¢1.1K

61.0¢103.9

62.0¢251

63.0¢308.1

Buy NO (asks)

46.0¢2.5K

47.0¢2.9K

48.0¢2.1K

49.0¢271.9

50.0¢1.1K

51.0¢1.1K

53.0¢1.0K

58.0¢37

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

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Matched market

No equivalent contract found

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Resolution

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Source: https://www.sos.texas.gov

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.