KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?

South Dakota Senate winner?

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Implied probability

94.5%

94.5¢ per contract

1 hour: −0.1 pts down
24 hours: +0.1 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $20,100
Total volume: $276K
Liquidity: $5,675
Open interest: 187,451
Spread: 0.2¢
Best bid / ask: 94¢ / 95¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

94.6¢2

94.9¢39

95.0¢1.5K

95.1¢0

95.2¢1.1K

95.3¢0

95.4¢200

95.5¢0

Buy NO (asks)

5.6¢215

5.7¢764

5.8¢493

5.9¢1.2K

6.0¢1.4K

6.1¢987.5

6.8¢1.0K

6.9¢200

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Dakota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

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Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?0.4% · $3.26M 24h
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Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?72.5% · $2.07M 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.