Will it rain in St. Louis on Oct 31, 2026?
Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?
- 1 hour
- 0.0 pts unchanged
- 24 hours
- +74.0 pts up
- 7 days
- —
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $96,675
- Total volume
- $98,828
- Liquidity
- —
- Open interest
- 21,464
- Spread
- —
- Best bid / ask
- —
- Closes
- Nov 1, 01:00 ET
- Status
- closed
Order book
Order book unavailable
The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.
Why is this moving?
St. Louis rain market surges to 99% on heavy volume
Weak evidenceThe Kalshi implied probability for rain in St. Louis on Oct 31, 2026, is currently priced at 99.0%.
Over the last 24 hours, the price moved +74.0 points, rising from 25.0% to 99.0%.
Trading volume over the past 24 hours was $96,400.
Estimated resting liquidity stands at approximately $140K.
There was no price movement (0.0 pts) during the most recent hour.
The significant price increase coincided with substantial trading activity ($96,400 volume), suggesting that market participants aggressively repriced the likelihood of rain based on new information or consensus shifts available to them.
The stabilization at 99.0% with zero movement in the last hour indicates that current pricing may reflect a near-certainty among traders, leaving little room for further upward adjustment.
- The evidence does not specify what external factors (such as weather forecasts) drove the repricing.
Evidence score 9/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
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