KalshiOpenEconomics

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

2.5%

2.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $20,805
Total volume: $157K
Liquidity: $15,367
Open interest: 9,533
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 2¢ / 3¢
Closes: Jan 1, 01:29 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

3.0¢132K

4.0¢6

5.0¢12.5

6.0¢6.0K

8.0¢2

9.0¢2

10.0¢1

23.0¢5

Buy NO (asks)

98.0¢586K

99.0¢6.3K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 93,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.

Source: https://www.ercot.com/static-assets/data/news/content/a-peak-demand/all-time-records.htm

Related markets

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?4.5% · $49,266 24h
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?5.5% · $199 24h
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 98,000 MW?1.5% · $2.00 24h
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 94,000 MW?2.5% · $0.00 24h
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?2.5% · $0.00 24h
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.1550?17.5% · $77,865 24h
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.1600?1.5% · $55,317 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.