KalshiOpenTech

Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?

Next Gemini Pro model release

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

11.5%

11.5¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $33.92
Total volume: $21,565
Liquidity: $760
Open interest: 7,559
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Nov 30, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

12.0¢3.7K

15.0¢200

26.0¢300

27.0¢104.5

45.0¢5.2

50.0¢8.6

55.0¢38

56.0¢2.5K

Buy NO (asks)

90.0¢2.1K

91.0¢26.6

92.0¢400

93.0¢200

94.0¢45.5

96.0¢153

97.0¢313

98.0¢2.2K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Source: https://gemini.google.com/app

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.