KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Carolina?

South Carolina Senate winner?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

27.5%

27.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $425K
Total volume: $2.17M
Liquidity: $184K
Open interest: 2,719,456
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 27¢ / 28¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

28.0¢494K

29.0¢176K

30.0¢77K

31.0¢72K

32.0¢31K

33.0¢5.4K

34.0¢101K

35.0¢4.1K

Buy NO (asks)

73.0¢130K

74.0¢41K

75.0¢23K

76.0¢4.8K

77.0¢2.3K

78.0¢1.4K

79.0¢27

81.0¢1.3K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

Related markets

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?72.5% · $25,327 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?30.5% · $3.49M 24h
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?0.4% · $3.34M 24h
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?6.7% · $2.76M 24h
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?6.0% · $1.73M 24h
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?29.5% · $1.17M 24h
Who will win the governorship in California?2.5% · $1.15M 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?24.5% · $1.05M 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.