KalshiOpenCryptoGrade C · 64%

Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

1.5%

1.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $49,713
Total volume: $14.03M
Liquidity: $5,494
Open interest: 4,930,882
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 1¢ / 2¢
Closes: Jan 1, 00:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

2.0¢247K

3.0¢8.0K

4.0¢265.4

5.0¢1.3K

6.0¢10K

7.0¢3.2K

8.0¢1.0K

9.0¢8.6K

Buy NO (asks)

99.0¢51K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched on the other venue

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026

PolymarketGrade C · 64%

Compare venues →

Resolution

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Source: https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.