KalshiOpenPolitics

Red wave in 2026?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

4.0%

4.0¢ per contract

1 hour: −0.5 pts down
24 hours: −1.0 pts down
7 days: −3.0 pts down

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $49,755
Total volume: $465K
Liquidity: $104
Open interest: 400,408
Spread: 2.0¢
Best bid / ask: 3¢ / 5¢
Closes: Feb 1, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

5.0¢36K

6.0¢18K

7.0¢26K

8.0¢11K

9.0¢30K

10.0¢34K

11.0¢293.8

12.0¢13K

Buy NO (asks)

97.0¢3.1K

98.0¢69K

99.0¢60K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If ALL of the following occur for the 2026 midterms: U.S. House: Republicans win 220 or more seats, U.S. Senate: Republicans hold 55 or more seats, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U.S. House (SEATSCONGRESS), U.S. Senate (SEATSCONGRESS).

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

Related markets

Will Republicans win the House in 2026?6.0% · $6.07M 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?26.5% · $4.61M 24h
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?0.4% · $3.85M 24h
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?5.9% · $3.81M 24h
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?73.5% · $2.78M 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?21.5% · $2.68M 24h
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?77.5% · $2.16M 24h
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?73.5% · $1.81M 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.