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ERCOT West Hub average power price above $50/MWh, Week 45?

ERCOT West Hub average real-time power price (Week 45)

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Implied probability

20.0%

20.0¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: 0.0 pts unchanged
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $2,508
Total volume: $2,510
Liquidity: $76.00
Open interest: 1,340
Spread: 10.0¢
Best bid / ask: 15¢ / 25¢
Closes: Nov 6, 16:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

24.0¢100

25.0¢200

30.0¢5

92.0¢1

96.0¢54

97.0¢201

99.0¢11

Buy NO (asks)

84.0¢1

86.0¢200

97.0¢1

99.0¢53

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the all-hours average real-time power price at ERCOT West Hub is above $50/MWh for the week ending November 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Period: October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT to November 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. Includes the start; excludes the end. Source: ERCOT’s 15-minute real-time Settlement Point Prices (NP6-905-CD). Intervals follow ERCOT’s Central-time operating days and delivery-interval conventions; repeated daylight-saving intervals count separately. Calculation: Simple average of all applicable 15-minute prices, including negative prices. Round the average to two decimals, with exact halves away from zero. Equality resolves No. Trading closes: November 6, 2026 at 4:59 PM EST. The final delivery interval still counts. Price versions: Use first published applicable prices. Later corrections count only if published before expiration and accepted by the Exchange as correcting a material error. Exclude unverified, estimated, indicative and forecast prices. Missing data: Do not fill missing prices. At expiration, average the available prices if at least 95% of required intervals are available. Below 95%, resolve only if the available data establishes the outcome regardless of missing values; otherwise, settle at the Exchange-determined last fair price under the full rules.

Source: https://ercot.com

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.