Grade C · 0%RelatedOutcome mapping: same
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
Kalshi 97.0% vs Polymarket 86.5% on Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 mee… — a 10.5 point prediction-market gap.
Live comparison
Kalshi
97.0%
—Polymarket
86.5%
—- Disagreement
- 10.5 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
| Metric | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Probability | 97.0% | 86.5% |
| 1h move | — | — |
| 24h move | — | — |
| 7d move | — | — |
| 24h volume | $0.00 | $209K |
| Liquidity | — | $775K |
| Spread | — | — |
| Open interest | 6,408,043 | — |
| Closes | Oct 28, 13:59 ET | Oct 28, 23:59 ET |
| Resolution source | https://www.federalreserve.gov | https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars… |
| Contract | Open → | Open → |
Probability history
Both venues on one axis, with the gap beneath
KalshiPolymarket
No history available for this range yet.
How confident is this match?
Deterministic scoring first; the model may only downgrade
- Title
- 61%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 90%
- Threshold
- 50%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 55%
Deterministic score 75%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 16, 17:02 ET.
Material differences
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi resolves based on the Federal Reserve website generally, while Polymarket explicitly defines resolution by the 'upper bound of the target federal funds range' and specifies rounding rules (e.g., 12.5 bps change rounds to 25 bps).
- Cancellation/No Statement Handling: Kalshi states that if the meeting is canceled, 'Fed maintains rate' resolves to Yes. Polymarket states that if no statement is released by the end date of the *next* scheduled meeting, it resolves to the 'No change' bracket. These are different triggers and timelines for non-event scenarios.
- Threshold Definition: Kalshi asks for a hike of exactly 0bps. Polymarket asks for 'no change', which implies 0bps, but the explicit rounding rule in Polymarket introduces potential edge cases where a very small non-zero change might be treated differently depending on interpretation, though both aim for 0. However, the primary difference is the handling of ambiguous or missing data.
- Close/Settlement Times: Kalshi closes at 2026-10-28 17:59 UTC and settles at 18:05 UTC. Polymarket closes at 2026-10-29 03:59 UTC. This means Polymarket remains open longer after the likely announcement time, potentially allowing trading on initial reactions before final settlement confirmation.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi resolves based on the Federal Reserve website generally, while Polymarket explicitly defines the metric as the 'upper bound of the target federal funds range' and references specific URLs for the calendar and open market operations.
- Rounding Rules: Polymarket includes a specific rounding rule ('If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25... e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps'). Kalshi does not specify this rounding behavior in the provided text, only stating that a 0bps hike resolves Y…
- Cancellation/No Statement Handling: Kalshi states that if the meeting is canceled, 'Fed maintains rate' (YES) resolves to Yes. Polymarket states that if no statement is released by the end date of the *next* scheduled meeting, it resolves to the 'No change' bracket (which corresponds to YES in this context). While similar, the trigger conditions differ slightly (Kalshi focuses on cancellation of…
- Close/Settlement Times: Kalshi closes/settles at 2026-10-28 17:59/18:05 UTC. Polymarket closes at 2026-10-29 03:59 UTC. This creates a time gap where one might settle before the other, though likely both wait for the official announcement.
- Resolution Source Discrepancy: Kalshi explicitly states that if the meeting is canceled, 'Fed maintains rate' resolves to YES. Polymarket's rules do not have an explicit cancellation clause; instead, they state that if no statement is released by the end date of the *next* scheduled meeting, it resolves to 'No change'. While both might resolve to YES/No Change in a cancellation scenario, the trig…
- Threshold Definition & Rounding: Kalshi defines the outcome as a 'Hike of 0bps'. Polymarket defines the outcome based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range, with specific rounding rules ('rounded up to the nearest 25'). A change of 12.5 bps would be considered 25 bps by Polymarket (resolving NO for 'No change'), whereas Kalshi's '0bps' condition strictly requires a 0b…
- Close/Settlement Timing: Kalshi closes at 2026-10-28 17:59 UTC and settles at 18:05 UTC. Polymarket closes at 2026-10-29 03:59 UTC. This means Polymarket allows trading for several hours after the likely announcement time (FOMC statements are typically released at 2:00 PM ET / 18:00 UTC). If the market moves significantly post-announcement but before Polymarket's close, traders can still enter po…
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi resolves based on the Federal Reserve website generally, while Polymarket explicitly defines 'no change' as the upper bound of the target federal funds range remaining unchanged versus the level prior to the meeting.
While both markets effectively ask if the Fed holds rates steady (0 bps change) in October 2026, they are not strictly equivalent due to differing rules on cancellation/no-statement scenarios and specific definition of the rate metric (Polymarket's upper bound + rounding vs Kalshi's general 'hike' terminology). Additionally, the close times differ significantly (Kalshi closes ~10 hours earlier than Polymarket), affecting tradability windows relative to the event.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Grade A pairs only, from executable book prices with depth simulation
Theoretical edge is calculated only for Grade A pairs, where the two contracts appear materially equivalent for settlement analysis. This pair is graded C, so the venues are compared for probability and sentiment only.
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
No timeline events yet
Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
Past 24 hours, ranked by notional
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.