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Grade B · 95%Near equivalentOutcome mapping: same

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.

Live comparison
Kalshi
0.5%
−0.1 pts down
Polymarket
0.3%
−0.1 pts down
Disagreement
0.3 pts
Match confidence
95%
Theoretical edge
none

Side by side

MetricKalshiPolymarket
Probability0.5%0.3%
1h move0.0 pts unchanged−0.1 pts down
24h move−0.1 pts down−0.1 pts down
7d move—−0.1 pts down
24h volume$8,336$8,762
Liquidity$420$1.60M
Spread0.1¢0.1¢
Open interest3,150,291—
ClosesNov 7, 10:00 ETNov 7, 23:59 ET
Resolution sourcehttps://democrats.org/—
ContractOpen →Open →

Probability history

Both venues on one axis, with the gap beneath
KalshiPolymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket implied probability for Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028. Kalshi moved from 1% to 1%; Polymarket moved from 0% to 0%. Times shown in EDT.0%20%40%60%80%100%20:20 ET21:31 ET22:42 ET23:53 ET01:05 ET
Gap history (percentage points)
Probability gap between venues. Gap moved from -0 pts to -0 pts. Times shown in EDT.-0 pts-0 pts-0 pts-0 pts-0 pts-0 pts20:23 ET21:33 ET22:44 ET23:55 ET01:06 ET

How confident is this match?

Deterministic scoring first; the model may only downgrade
Title
79%
Entities
50%
Dates
100%
Threshold
100%
Polarity
100%
Rules
65%

Deterministic score 78%. Semantic verification 95%. Last verified Sep 23, 02:02 ET.

Material differences
  • Close time differs by approximately 14 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC), but both occur after the likely resolution event (Democratic National Convention in August 2028) and before the general election, so settlement outcomes are unaffected.
  • Resolution source specificity: Kalshi explicitly cites 'https://democrats.org/', while Polymarket cites a 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'. These are functionally equivalent for this specific binary outcome.
  • The Kalshi contract explicitly lists the resolution source as 'https://democrats.org/', whereas the Polymarket contract states it will be a 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'. While likely functionally identical, the specific citation differs.
  • The Polymarket rules include an explicit clause: 'Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.' The Kalshi rules do not contain this text, but standard settlement practice for 'nominee' markets implies that the person who accepts the nomination at the convention is the one who counts, regardless of later replacements. However, strictly
  • Close times differ by approximately 14 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC). This is immaterial to the outcome logic since the event (acceptance of nomination) occurs months prior.
  • The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination for a YES resolution. The Polymarket contract also requires the individual to 'win and accept' the nomination.
  • The Polymarket rules include a specific clause stating that any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution (i.e., if Cooper wins/accepts but is later replaced, it still resolves YES). The Kalshi rules do not explicitly mention this scenario, but standard interpretation of 'wins and accepts' implies the acceptance event itself triggers the settlement, i
  • The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination for a YES resolution, whereas the Polymarket rules also require the individual to 'win and accept' the nomination. This is a match.
  • Polymarket includes a specific clause stating that any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution (i.e., if Cooper wins/accepts but is later replaced, it still resolves YES). The Kalshi rules provided do not explicitly state this replacement clause, but standard interpretation of 'wins and accepts' usually implies the initial acceptance counts unless a
  • The close times differ by approximately 14 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC), but both are after the likely convention date and before the general election, so they settle on the same real-world outcome.
  • Resolution sources differ slightly in specificity (Kalshi cites democrats.org; Polymarket cites 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'), but these are functionally equivalent for determining the nominee.
  • The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination in its rules text ('wins and accepts'), while the Polymarket rules also require acceptance ('wins and accepts'). This is consistent.

Both contracts ask if Roy Cooper wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The core condition (winning and accepting the nomination) is identical. The slight difference in close times does not impact the settlement logic as the nomination occurs well before November 2028. Both resolve YES if Cooper secures the nomination and NO otherwise.

Theoretical cross-market edge

Grade A pairs only, from executable book prices with depth simulation
Theoretical edge is calculated only for Grade A pairs, where the two contracts appear materially equivalent for settlement analysis. This pair is graded B, so the venues are compared for probability and sentiment only.

Why are these diverging?

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Notable trades on both venues

Past 24 hours, ranked by notional

No sizeable trades recorded

Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.