Grade B · 95%Near equivalentOutcome mapping: same

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will Ro Khanna be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.

Live comparison

Kalshi

1.5%

−0.1 pts

Polymarket

1.7%

−0.1 pts

Disagreement: 0.2 pts
Match confidence: 95%
Theoretical edge: none

Side by side

Metric	Kalshi	Polymarket
Probability	1.5%	1.7%
1h move	0.0 pts unchanged	0.0 pts unchanged
24h move	−0.1 pts down	−0.1 pts down
7d move	—	+0.3 pts up
24h volume	$1,188	$4,053
Liquidity	$1,024	$380K
Spread	0.2¢	0.2¢
Open interest	4,138,645	—
Closes	Nov 7, 10:00 ET	Nov 7, 23:59 ET
Resolution source	https://democrats.org/	—
Contract	Open →	Open →

Probability history

Both venues on one axis, with the gap beneath

KalshiPolymarket

Gap history (percentage points)

How confident is this match?

Deterministic scoring first; the model may only downgrade

Title: 79%
Entities: 50%
Dates: 100%
Threshold: 100%
Polarity: 100%
Rules: 65%

Deterministic score 78%. Semantic verification 95%. Last verified Sep 22, 11:02 ET.

Material differences

The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination for YES resolution. The Polymarket contract also requires the individual to 'win and accept' the nomination.
The Polymarket contract includes a specific clause stating that any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution (i.e., if Khanna wins/accepts but is later replaced, it still resolves YES). The Kalshi rules do not explicitly mention this replacement scenario, but standard interpretation of 'wins and accepts' implies the acceptance event itself triggers the YES, and
subsequent replacements are typically outside the scope of the initial acceptance condition unless specified otherwise. However, given both require acceptance, they align on the primary trigger.
Different close/settlement times: Kalshi closes 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC; Polymarket closes 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC. This is a minor timing difference unlikely to affect settlement logic for a static outcome like nomination acceptance.
The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination for a YES resolution, whereas the Polymarket rules also require the individual to 'win and accept' the nomination. This is semantically equivalent.
The Polymarket rules include a specific clause: 'Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.' The Kalshi rules do not explicitly state this, but standard interpretation of 'wins... the nomination' implies the initial winner at the convention. However, if Khanna wins the nomination but is later replaced (e.g., due to health or scandal)
The Kalshi close/settlement time is 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC. The Polymarket close time is 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC. These are effectively the same cutoff relative to the US Election Day (Nov 7, 2028), with Polymarket closing slightly later in UTC terms (which corresponds to earlier in the day on Nov 7 in some US time zones or late Nov 7/early Nov 8 depending on DST). Given the event is the Democratic Nom
The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination for a YES resolution, whereas the Polymarket rules also require the individual to 'win and accept' the nomination. Both conditions are effectively identical in practice as acceptance is standard procedure upon winning.
Kalshi specifies the resolution source as https://democrats.org/, while Polymarket uses a 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'. These are functionally equivalent as democrats.org is the primary official source.
Polymarket includes an explicit clause stating that any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution (i.e., if Ro Khanna wins but is replaced, it still resolves YES). Kalshi's rule ('If Ro Khanna wins...') implies this same outcome by focusing on the act of winning rather than the final candidate on the ballot, though it is less explicit.
The Kalshi contract explicitly requires the nominee to 'accept' the nomination for YES resolution. The Polymarket rules also require the individual to 'win and accept' the nomination.
Polymarket includes a specific clause stating that any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution (i.e., if Ro Khanna wins/accepts but is later replaced, it still resolves YES). Kalshi's rule text provided does not explicitly mention this replacement scenario, but standard interpretation of 'wins and accepts' implies the acceptance event locks in the '

Both contracts resolve YES if Ro Khanna wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The core condition (winning + accepting) is identical. While Polymarket adds an explicit anti-replacement clause, Kalshi's requirement of 'acceptance' generally serves as the definitive point of resolution for such markets, making them functionally equivalent for trading purposes regarding the real-world outcome of Khanna securing the nomination.

Theoretical cross-market edge

Grade A pairs only, from executable book prices with depth simulation

Theoretical edge is calculated only for Grade A pairs, where the two contracts appear materially equivalent for settlement analysis. This pair is graded B, so the venues are compared for probability and sentiment only.

Why are these diverging?

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

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Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Notable trades on both venues

Past 24 hours, ranked by notional

No sizeable trades recorded

Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.