Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will Phil Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.1 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 79%
- Entities
- 50%
- Dates
- 100%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 65%
Deterministic score 78%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 31, 22:03 ET.
- Resolution Source: Kalshi explicitly cites 'https://democrats.org/' as the resolution source. Polymarket states the source is a 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources' but does not provide a specific URL or single authoritative entity, which could lead to ambiguity in edge cases.
- Close/Settlement Time: Kalshi closes and settles at 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC. Polymarket closes at 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC (approx. 14 hours later). While both are after the likely nomination date, the difference in cutoff times means trading windows differ.
- Replacement Clause: Polymarket explicitly includes a clause stating that 'Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.' Kalshi's rules do not explicitly mention this scenario, relying solely on whether Murphy 'wins and accepts' the nomination. If Murphy wins/accepts but is later replaced by the party before Election Day, Kalshi might…
- Close time differs by approximately 13 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC). However, since the Democratic National Convention and nomination acceptance occur well before November 2028, this timing difference does not affect the settlement outcome for realistic scenarios.
- Resolution source specification differs slightly in wording (Kalshi cites a specific URL; Polymarket cites 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'), but both refer to the same authoritative body (the DNC) and the same event (winning and accepting the nomination).
- Close time differs by approximately 14 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC). However, since the Democratic National Convention typically concludes well before November 2028, and the nomination is usually secured months prior, this timing difference is unlikely to affect settlement outcomes for realistic scenarios.
- Resolution source specificity: Kalshi explicitly cites 'https://democrats.org/', while Polymarket cites a 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'. These are functionally equivalent as democrats.org is the primary official source.
- Polymarket includes an explicit clause regarding nominee replacement ('Any replacement... will not change the resolution'), whereas Kalshi's rule text provided does not explicitly mention this edge case. However, standard market practice and the definition of 'wins and accepts' generally imply that if Murphy wins the nomination but is later replaced, he did win/accept it at the convention, so bot…
- Close time differs by approximately 14 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC). However, since the Democratic National Convention typically concludes in August/September and the nominee is unlikely to change or accept/reject after November 7th, this timing difference does not affect the settlement outcome for realistic scenarios.
- Polymarket explicitly states that 'Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.' Kalshi's rules do not explicitly mention replacements, but standard interpretation of 'wins and accepts' implies the initial winner/acceptor determines the outcome regardless of later changes. This aligns with Polymarket's explicit rule.
- Close time differs by approximately 14 hours (Kalshi: 2028-11-07 15:00 UTC vs Polymarket: 2028-11-08 04:59 UTC). However, the Democratic National Convention and nomination acceptance typically occur in August 2028, well before either close date, so this timing difference is unlikely to affect settlement outcomes.
- Resolution source specificity: Kalshi explicitly cites 'https://democrats.org/', while Polymarket cites a 'consensus of official Democratic Party sources'. These are functionally equivalent as both rely on official party confirmation.
Undecided: 4 of 5 independent verifier checks judged these contracts equivalent. For: Both contracts resolve YES if and only if Phil Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The core condition is identical. The minor differences in close times and resolution source phrasing do not create divergent outcomes in any realistic scenario where the nomination has already occurred. Against: The contracts are not strictly equivalent due to differences in resolution sources (specific URL vs consensus) and close times. Additionally, Polymarket has an explicit rule regarding nominee replacement that Kalshi lacks, creating potential divergence in settlement logic if Murphy is nominated but subsequently replaced before the general election.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
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Notable trades on both venues
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