Kalshi vs Polymarket: Virginia wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 98.2 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 81%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 85%
- Rules
- 65%
Deterministic score 85%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Sep 19, 23:04 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- **Tie Handling**: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state how a tie is handled (though 'fair price' or specific NCAA rules might apply, it's ambiguous compared to Polymarket). Polymarket explicitly states that if the game ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.
- **Postponement/Cancellation Logic**: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games; if not started within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket keeps the market open indefinitely until completion and only resolves 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up game.
- **Resolution Source Specificity**: Kalshi specifies `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`, while Polymarket specifies `ncaa.com`.
- **Close Times**: Kalshi closes on 2026-09-21 23:30 UTC, whereas Polymarket closes on 2026-09-19 23:30 UTC.
- **Tie Resolution**: Kalshi resolves to 'fair price' (typically meaning a refund or specific settlement mechanism not defined as 50-50 in the text provided, but distinct from Polymarket's explicit 50-50 split) if the game is cancelled/not started within 48 hours. More importantly, Kalshi rules do not explicitly state how a tie *during play* is handled other than implying it doesn't resolve YES/NO,;
- **Postponement/Cancellation Handling**: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games to count; if not played within 48 hours, it resolves to 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion and only resolves 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up.
- **Settlement Time Discrepancy**: The extracted data shows Kalshi settlement time as 2026-09-20 02:30 UTC while close time is 2026-09-21 23:30 UTC, which is logically inconsistent (settlement before close). This suggests potential data extraction errors or unusual venue mechanics that differ from standard Polymarket behavior.
- **Outcome Mapping Ambiguity**: While both cover the same game, the handling of non-decisive outcomes (ties/cancellations) differs significantly in financial payout structure.
- Tie handling: Polymarket resolves ties to a 50-50 split (meaning both outcomes pay out partially or the market is voided/split depending on implementation, but explicitly stated as 'resolve 50-50'), whereas Kalshi's rules do not specify tie handling in the provided text, though standard sports markets often resolve based on official winner; if no winner is declared, Kalshi might resolve to fair or
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing handling of ties, postponements, and cancellations. Additionally, the close times differ significantly. However, they cover the same event. Kalshi YES ('Virginia wins') corresponds to Polymarket NO ('Virginia').
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
No timeline events yet
Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.