Kalshi vs Polymarket: Texas Tech wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.9 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 84%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 69%
Deterministic score 88%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 3, 23:02 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie outcome (implying 'Texas Tech wins' is false if tied, resolving NO), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games; if the game starts after this window or is cancelled/not started within it, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion and resolves 50-50 only if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi specifies `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`, while Polymarket specifies `ncaa.com`.
- Tie Handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state how a tie is handled (implying 'Texas Tech wins' is false, so NO pays), whereas Polymarket explicitly states that if the game ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation Logic: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window for postponed games to remain open; if they don't start within 48 hours, they resolve to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states the market remains open until completed regardless of delay duration, and only resolves 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up game.
- Outcome Structure: Kalshi is a binary YES/NO on 'Texas Tech wins'. Polymarket is a two-sided market between 'Texas Tech' and 'Colorado'. While often correlated, they are structurally different instruments. Specifically, if Colorado wins, Kalshi YES loses (NO wins), while Polymarket 'Texas Tech' loses (Polymarket 'Colorado' wins). However, the mapping requested is for Kalshi YES. If Texas Tech win…
- Tie Handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state how a tie is resolved (implying 'Texas Tech wins' is False, so NO pays), whereas Polymarket explicitly states that if the game ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation Handling: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window rule; if the game starts within 48 hours of the original start time, it resolves on the result. If cancelled or not started within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states that if postponed, it remains open until completed, and if cancelled entirely with no make-up, it resolves 50-50. These mechanisms diffe…
- Overtime: Polymarket explicitly includes overtime in the win condition. Kalshi's rule ('If Texas Tech wins...') implicitly includes overtime as part of winning the game, but the explicit definition varies slightly in clarity.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi specifies `https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`, while Polymarket specifies `https://www.ncaa.com/`. While likely functionally identical, they are technically different strings.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie outcome but imply 'fair price' or standard resolution logic for non-completion; however, Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50. More importantly, Kalshi's rule about cancellation/postponement >48 hours resolving to 'fair price' differs from Polymarket's explicit '50-50' for cancellation.
- Postponement/Cancellation Logic: Kalshi specifies that if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours, it remains open and resolves on final result. If cancelled or not started within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states that if postponed, it remains open until completed (no 48-hour limit mentioned). If cancelled entirely with no make-up, it resolves 50-50. The 'fair pr…
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing settlement rules for ties and postponements/cancellations. Kalshi's 'fair price' resolution for cancellations/postponements outside the 48-hour window differs materially from Polymarket's 50-50 split or indefinite hold. Additionally, Kalshi implies a NO result on a tie (since Texas Tech did not win), while Polymarket splits the payout.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
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Notable trades on both venues
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Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.