Kalshi vs Polymarket: South Carolina wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 98.0 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 85%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 85%
- Rules
- 69%
Deterministic score 87%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 3, 20:02 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie outcome in the provided text (implying standard 'fair price' or specific resolution logic for non-win scenarios), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window; if the game is cancelled or doesn't start within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open until completion regardless of delay duration, and only resolves 50-50 if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi specifies `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`, while Polymarket specifies `ncaa.com`.
- Market Structure: Kalshi is a binary market on 'South Carolina wins' (YES/NO). Polymarket is a two-sided market where YES=Kentucky and NO=South Carolina. While 'Kalshi YES' maps to 'Polymarket NO', the structural differences in settlement rules (ties/cancellations) create divergence.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie resolution mechanism (implying 'South Carolina wins' is false if tied, or potentially ambiguous/unresolved depending on strict interpretation of 'wins'), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window rule; if the game starts within 48 hours it resolves normally, otherwise it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states that if postponed, it remains open until completion, and if canceled entirely with no make-up, it resolves 50-50. These are materially different settlement outcomes for non-standard game scenarios.
- Outcome Mapping Ambiguity: The Kalshi contract asks 'South Carolina wins'. The Polymarket contract is a two-sided market where YES='Kentucky' and NO='South Carolina'. To match Kalshi YES (SC wins), one must buy Polymarket NO. However, due to the tie/cancellation differences, they are not strictly equivalent in all realistic scenarios.
- Tie Handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state how a tie is handled (though 'fair price' or specific NCAA rules might apply, the provided text only mentions postponement/cancellation). Polymarket explicitly states ties resolve 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation Handling: Kalshi resolves to 'fair price' if cancelled or not started within 48 hours. Polymarket remains open until completion if postponed, and resolves 50-50 if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi cites `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`. Polymarket cites `ncaa.com`.
- Timezone/Close Time Discrepancy: Kalshi close time is listed as 2026-10-05 17:00 UTC (which is after the settlement time of 2026-10-03 20:00 UTC, suggesting a potential data error in the prompt's extraction or a very late trading window relative to the event date, whereas Polymarket closes at 2026-10-03 20:15 UTC, shortly after the scheduled start).
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie outcome but imply resolution based on 'win' (likely NO if no winner, or Fair Price if undefined); Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing rules for ties and postponements/cancellations. Kalshi uses a 48-hour cutoff for fair price resolution, while Polymarket waits indefinitely for completion or resolves 50-50 on cancellation/ties. Additionally, Kalshi's treatment of a tie is not explicitly defined as 50-50 in the snippet, creating potential divergence from Polymarket's explicit 50-50 tie rule.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
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Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.