Kalshi vs Polymarket: Memphis wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.6 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 80%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 65%
Deterministic score 87%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 16, 20:04 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie resolution mechanism (implying standard 'No' or potentially ambiguous/fair price depending on interpretation of 'win'), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games; if the game starts after this window or is cancelled, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion and resolves to 50-50 only if cancelled with no make-up game.
- Outcome Mapping: Kalshi YES corresponds to Memphis winning. Polymarket 'Memphis' outcome corresponds to Memphis winning. However, due to the tie/cancellation differences, they are not strictly equivalent in all scenarios.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie resolution mechanism in the provided text (though 'fair price' is mentioned for cancellation/postponement beyond limits, ties are often resolved as 'No' or specific fair prices depending on venue defaults, but Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50). More importantly, Kalshi's YES/NO structure implies a binary win/loss outcome for Mem…
- Postponement/Cancellation Handling: Kalshi states that if the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states that if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up, it resolves 50-50. These are different settlement outcomes.
- Outcome Structure: Kalshi is a binary market (YES/NO) focused solely on whether Memphis wins. Polymarket is a two-sided market (Memphis/Tulane) where NO corresponds to Tulane winning. While mapped, the presence of a third potential state (tie) handled differently makes them non-equivalent.
- Close Time Discrepancy: Kalshi close time is listed as 2026-10-18 23:30 UTC, while Polymarket close time is 2026-10-16 23:30 UTC. This suggests Kalshi remains open longer, potentially allowing trading after the scheduled game start time if postponed, whereas Polymarket closes before the scheduled start.
- Tie Handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state a tie resolution mechanism (implying standard sports betting rules where a tie usually results in a push/refund or specific 'fair price' if undefined, but often treated as NO for 'wins' unless specified). Polymarket explicitly states ties resolve to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation Logic: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window; if the game starts within 48 hours it resolves on result, otherwise it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion if postponed, and resolves 50-50 only if canceled entirely with no make-up game.
- Outcome Mapping Structure: Kalshi is binary (YES/NO) focused solely on Memphis winning. Polymarket is two-sided (Memphis/Tulane), implying that if Tulane wins, the 'Memphis' outcome loses. While functionally similar for a YES bet on Memphis, the explicit handling of the opponent's win condition differs in structure.
- Settlement Time Discrepancy: Kalshi lists settlement time as 2026-10-17 02:30 UTC, while Polymarket lists unknown. This suggests different operational timelines.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly state how a tie is resolved (likely 'fair price' or undefined in the provided text, but standard sports markets often treat ties as cancellations or specific outcomes; however, Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50). More importantly, Kalshi's rule for cancellation/postponement beyond 48 hours is 'fair price', whereas Polymarket's rule for cance…
The contracts differ significantly in how they handle edge cases. Kalshi resolves to a 'fair price' if the game is cancelled or postponed beyond 48 hours, while Polymarket resolves to 50-50 for cancellations and stays open for postponements without a time limit. Additionally, Polymarket explicitly handles ties as 50-50, while Kalshi's rule text ('If Memphis wins...') implies a binary win/loss structure where a tie might result in NO or require specific interpretation not provided in the snippet. Therefore, a trader holding YES on Kalshi would not necessarily be paid the same amount as a trader holding 'Memphis' on Polymarket in tie or cancellation scenarios.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
No timeline events yet
Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.