Kalshi vs Polymarket: LSU vs. Ole Miss
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.9 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 53%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 42%
Deterministic score 75%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Sep 17, 13:03 ET.
- resolution_sources_differ
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- Tie handling: Polymarket resolves ties to a 50-50 split (effectively voiding the bet or paying half), whereas Kalshi's rules do not explicitly define tie resolution but imply standard sports settlement where a tie is neither a win for LSU nor Ole Miss; however, Kalshi's 'fair market price' clause applies only if the game doesn't start within 48 hours. If the game starts and ends in a tie, Kalshi…
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window. If the game does not begin within 48 hours of the scheduled time, it resolves to a 'fair market price' (cash settlement based on order book), which is distinct from Polymarket's rule where the market remains open until completion or resolves 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up.
- Resolution Source: Kalshi uses FoxSports.com, while Polymarket uses NCAA.com. While unlikely to differ on final scores, this introduces potential discrepancy risks in edge cases (e.g., official vs. broadcast scoring decisions).
- **Tie Handling**: Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to a 50-50 split (or equivalent payout structure). Kalshi's rules do not specify tie handling; typically, if the game ends in a tie and neither team 'wins', the market may resolve based on specific venue defaults or remain unresolved/voided depending on broader platform policies, but it is not guaranteed to match Polymarket's 50-50 outcome.
- **Postponement/Cancellation Handling**: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window: if the game starts within 48 hours of the original date, it settles on the result; otherwise, it resolves to a 'fair market price' (which is subjective and potentially different from a binary YES/NO settlement). Polymarket states the market remains open until completion regardless of postponement duration, and only resolv…
- **Resolution Source**: Kalshi uses FoxSports.com, while Polymarket uses NCAA.com. While likely consistent for major college football games, discrepancies in official scoring or timing could theoretically occur.
- **Settlement Time Definition**: Kalshi lists a settlement time of 2026-09-20 02:30 UTC (likely an error in extraction or a placeholder given the game is Sep 19), whereas Polymarket's settlement time is unknown but logically follows the game conclusion.
- Tie Handling: "Kalshi rules do not explicitly specify tie handling in the provided text (though standard sports markets often void or resolve based on specific league rules, the absence of explicit '50-50' language creates ambiguity compared to Polymarket). Polymarket explicitly states ties resolve 50-50.", "Postponement/Cancellation Handling": "Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window: if the game…
- outcome_mapping.kalshi_yes
- polymarket_yes
- notes
- The primary difference lies in the postponement/cancellation logic. Kalshi's 'fair market price' resolution for delays >48h is fundamentally different from Polymarket's 'remain open' or '50-50' logic. Additionally, Kalshi's close time allows trading well past the scheduled game start, whereas Polymarket closes at the scheduled start time.
The contracts are not equivalent primarily due to different handling of ties and postponements/cancellations. Polymarket explicitly resolves ties as 50-50 and keeps markets open indefinitely for postponements, resolving 50-50 only if canceled without makeup. Kalshi resolves to a 'fair market price' if the game doesn't start within 48 hours, which is a cash settlement mechanism different from Polymarket's binary/void outcomes. Additionally, Kalshi's YES corresponds to LSU winning, which maps to Polymarket's YES (LSU), but the settlement mechanics for non-standard outcomes (ties, long delays) differ materially.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
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Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.