Kalshi vs Polymarket: Louisville wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 98.9 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 80%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 85%
- Rules
- 65%
Deterministic score 85%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Sep 19, 17:02 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- **Tie Resolution**: Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to '50-50' (meaning neither YES nor NO pays out fully, or it's a split settlement depending on platform mechanics, but typically implies no clear winner). Kalshi rules do not specify tie handling in the provided text, but standard binary sports markets usually resolve based on the official result; if a tie is possible and not covered by 'win'
- **Postponement/Cancellation Handling**: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window rule: if postponed but starts within 48 hours, it resolves normally; if cancelled or not started within 48 hours, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states that if postponed, it remains open until completed, and if cancelled entirely with no make-up game, it resolves 50-50. These are materially different settlement
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing resolution rules for ties and postponements/cancellations. Additionally, while they cover the same event, the mapping of outcomes is inverted relative to the question structure (Kalshi asks 'Louisville wins', Polymarket outcome 'NO' corresponds to Louisville winning).
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
No timeline events yet
Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.
Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.