Kalshi vs Polymarket: Germany wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.9 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 61%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 35%
Deterministic score 77%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 4, 17:05 ET.
- resolution_sources_differ
- tie_handling_differs
- data_release_rules_differ
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- The contracts ask opposite questions: Kalshi asks if Germany wins, while Polymarket asks if Greece wins.
- Tie/Draw handling differs significantly: Kalshi has a specific 'Tie' market that resolves YES on a draw (implying the Germany market resolves NO). Polymarket's rules state it resolves 'No' if Greece does not win (which includes draws), but also mentions resolving to 'Draw' where applicable in edge cases of data unavailability, creating ambiguity compared to Kalshi's explicit tie outcome.
- Cancellation/Postponement rules differ: Kalshi resolves to a 'fair price' if cancelled or rescheduled >48 hours away. Polymarket remains open until completion if postponed, and resolves 'No' if cancelled with no make-up game.
- Resolution sources differ: Kalshi uses ESPN; Polymarket uses UEFA official stats, with Flashscore/Sofascore as backups.
- Inverted Question: The Kalshi contract asks if Germany wins ('Germany wins'), while the Polymarket contract asks if Greece wins ('Will Greece win'). These are mutually exclusive outcomes in a standard match (excluding draws), meaning they are not equivalent; one pays when the other loses.
- Tie/Draw Handling: Kalshi explicitly states that if the game ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes (implying the 'Germany wins' market resolves to No). Polymarket states that if Greece does not win (which includes ties and losses), the market resolves to 'No'. While both result in a 'No' for the specific team winning in a draw, the fundamental question asked is different.
- Resolution Source Discrepancy: Kalshi uses ESPN as the primary resolution source. Polymarket uses UEFA official statistics, with fallbacks to Flashscore/Sofascore.
- Postponement/Cancellation Rules: Kalshi resolves to a 'fair price' if cancelled or rescheduled >48 hours away. Polymarket remains open until completion if postponed, and resolves 'No' if cancelled entirely.
- The contracts ask about opposite outcomes: Kalshi asks if Germany wins, while Polymarket asks if Greece wins.
- Tie handling differs significantly: Kalshi has a separate 'Tie' market that resolves YES on a draw (meaning the Germany market resolves NO), whereas Polymarket's Greece market resolves NO on a draw (since Greece did not win). While both result in a 'No' for the specific team markets in a draw, the underlying logic is inverted relative to the question asked.
- Cancellation/Postponement rules differ: Kalshi resolves to a 'fair price' if cancelled or rescheduled >48 hours away. Polymarket remains open until completion if postponed, and resolves 'No' if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Inverted Question: The Kalshi contract asks if Germany wins ('Germany wins'), while the Polymarket contract asks if Greece wins ('Will Greece win'). These are mutually exclusive outcomes in a standard match (excluding draws), meaning they are not equivalent questions.
The primary difference is the subject of the question. Kalshi settles YES if Germany wins. Polymarket settles YES if Greece wins. Therefore, Kalshi YES corresponds to Polymarket NO (assuming a binary win/loss structure for the mapped outcomes, though draws complicate this). Additionally, the handling of ties and cancellations is materially different between the two venues.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
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Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.