Kalshi vs Polymarket: Georgia wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.9 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 80%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 65%
Deterministic score 87%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Sep 19, 15:04 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- **Tie Handling**: Polymarket explicitly resolves to a 50-50 split in the event of a tie. Kalshi's rules do not specify tie handling; typically, if no winner is determined by the resolution source (NCAA), it might resolve based on 'fair price' or remain unresolved depending on specific platform defaults for ties, but the explicit 50-50 payout mechanism differs from a binary win/loss structure.
- **Postponement/Cancellation Logic**: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window: if the game doesn't start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket states it remains open until completed, and only resolves 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up game. This creates different risk profiles for traders regarding delayed games.
- **Resolution Source Specificity**: While both cite NCAA, Kalshi specifies `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs` whereas Polymarket cites `ncaa.com`. More importantly, the definition of 'win' vs 'tie' outcomes leads to different settlement values.
- **Market Structure**: Kalshi is a binary market (YES/NO) where YES pays $1 if Georgia wins. Polymarket is a two-sided market (Georgia/Arkansas). While 'Georgia' on Polymarket maps to 'YES' on Kalshi, the tie/cancellation payouts differ significantly (50-50 vs Fair Price/Undefined).
- Tie handling: Polymarket resolves ties to a 50-50 split (effectively paying half of each outcome or resolving as a draw depending on implementation, but explicitly stated as 'resolve 50-50'), whereas Kalshi's rules do not specify tie handling in the provided text, though standard sports contracts often resolve based on official result; however, the key difference is that Kalshi asks 'If Georgia...
- ...wins', implying a binary win/loss for Georgia. If the game ends in a tie, Georgia did not 'win'. Kalshi would likely resolve NO (or Fair Price if undefined). Polymarket explicitly handles ties with a 50-50 resolution.
- Postponement/Cancellation logic: Kalshi has a specific 48-hour window rule ('begins within 48 hours... remain open', otherwise 'fair price'). Polymarket states it remains open until completed regardless of delay duration, and cancels to 50-50 only if canceled entirely with no make-up.
- Close Time Discrepancy: Kalshi close time is listed as 2026-09-21 16:00 UTC, while Polymarket close time is 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC. The Kalshi date appears to be after the settlement/game date, which is unusual for a pre-game market close, potentially indicating a data error or different trading window structure, but strictly speaking, they differ.
- Settlement Time: Kalshi lists settlement time as 2026-09-19 19:00 UTC. Polymarket lists settlement time as unknown.
- **Tie Resolution**: Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to '50-50' (meaning both outcomes pay out partially or the market is voided/refunded depending on implementation, but typically implies a split payout or nullification). Kalshi rules do not specify tie handling in the provided text, but standard binary markets usually resolve NO if the specific condition (Win) is not met, or potentially Fair/
- Tie/Draw Handling: Polymarket explicitly resolves to '50-50' (splitting the payout or resolving both sides as half-won) if the game ends in a tie. Kalshi's rules do not mention ties; typically, binary sports markets on Kalshi resolve based on the official winner, and a tie might result in a 'No' for Georgia (if Arkansas didn't lose) or require specific interpretation of 'win'. However, the key is
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing handling of ties and postponements/cancellations. Polymarket offers a guaranteed 50-50 payout for ties and cancellations without a makeup game, while Kalshi uses a 'fair price' resolution for non-starts within 48 hours and lacks explicit tie instructions in the provided text (implying potential ambiguity or different default behavior). Additionally, the close times differ slightly relative to the game start.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
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Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.