Kalshi vs Polymarket: Florida wins
Two contracts on the same event, priced by two separate crowds. Where they disagree, one of them is wrong — or the contracts are not quite the same question.
- Disagreement
- 0.0 pts
- Match confidence
- 0%
- Theoretical edge
- none
Side by side
Probability history
How confident is this match?
- Title
- 80%
- Entities
- 100%
- Dates
- 86%
- Threshold
- 100%
- Polarity
- 100%
- Rules
- 66%
Deterministic score 87%. The model read both rule sets and did not find the contracts equivalent. Last verified Oct 3, 17:02 ET.
- tie_handling_differs
A soft flag is an ambiguity the deterministic rules noticed but could not resolve. Any one of them keeps a pair out of Grade A.
- Tie/Draw Handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly specify a tie outcome (implying 'Florida wins' is False if tied, or potentially resolving to fair price depending on interpretation of 'win'), whereas Polymarket explicitly states ties resolve 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation Handling: Kalshi resolves to 'fair price' if the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours. Polymarket resolves 50-50 if cancelled with no make-up game, and remains open indefinitely if postponed until completion (no 48-hour cutoff mentioned).
- Overtime: Polymarket explicitly includes overtime in the win condition. Kalshi's rule 'If Florida wins... resolves to Yes' implies standard NCAA football rules where overtime determines the winner, but the explicit inclusion is only present in Polymarket text.
- Resolution Source Specificity: Kalshi specifies `ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs`, while Polymarket specifies `ncaa.com`.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly specify tie resolution (implied 'fair price' or undefined if not covered by postponement/cancellation clauses), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties to 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games; if the game starts after this window or is cancelled, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion if postponed, and resolves 50-50 only if cancelled with no make-up game.
- Outcome Mapping: Kalshi YES corresponds to Florida winning. Polymarket 'Florida' outcome corresponds to Florida winning. However, due to the different tie/postponement resolutions, they are not strictly equivalent in all scenarios.
- Tie handling: Kalshi rules do not explicitly specify tie resolution (implying standard sports market behavior where a tie is neither a win nor a loss, potentially leading to 'fair price' or specific venue default), whereas Polymarket explicitly resolves ties as 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation handling: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games; if the game starts after this window or is cancelled/not started within it, it resolves to a 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open indefinitely until completion and only resolves 50-50 if cancelled entirely with no make-up game.
- Outcome Mapping Ambiguity: Kalshi's extracted data lists outcomes as ['florida', 'florida'] which appears to be an extraction error in the prompt's provided JSON, but the text says 'Florida wins... resolves to Yes'. Polymarket maps YES to Florida and NO to Missouri. While both ask 'Who wins?', the settlement mechanics for non-win scenarios (ties/cancellations) differ significantly.
- Tie handling: Kalshi resolves to 'fair price' (likely meaning void/refund or specific settlement not defined as a binary outcome) if the game is cancelled/not started within 48 hours, but does not explicitly state how a tie is handled in the provided rules text other than implying it's not a Florida win (so NO). Polymarket explicitly states ties resolve 50-50.
- Postponement/Cancellation logic: Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games; if not started within 48 hours, it resolves to 'fair price'. Polymarket remains open until completion regardless of delay, and only resolves 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up.
The contracts are not equivalent due to differing settlement rules for ties and cancellations/postponements. Kalshi uses a 'fair price' mechanism for non-completion/cancellation scenarios, while Polymarket uses a fixed 50-50 split for ties and cancellations. Additionally, Kalshi has a strict 48-hour window for postponed games to remain valid, whereas Polymarket keeps the market open until the game is completed regardless of delay duration.
Theoretical cross-market edge
Why are these diverging?
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
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Notable trades on both venues
No sizeable trades recorded
Neither venue has printed a trade above the reporting threshold on this event in the last 24 hours.