Prediction Markets Morning — 2026-10-05
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
The Overnight Picture
Jie Cui wins moved +54.5 pts to 77.5%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Kalshi. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot moved +35.0 pts to 99.9%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Polymarket. No matched contracts show gaps of 5 pts or more.
Top Kalshi Movers
Jie Cui wins (+54.5 pts to 77.5%); Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 5%? (+67.0 pts to 99.0%); Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? (+63.0 pts to 99.0%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
Top Polymarket Movers
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot (+35.0 pts to 99.9%); Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? (−69.5 pts to 0.1%); Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? (+60.0 pts to 99.9%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot | 99.9% | +35.0 pts | 100 | $228K |
| 2 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | 0.1% | −69.5 pts | 100 | $179K |
| 3 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | 99.9% | +60.0 pts | 100 | $69,088 |
| 4 | LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | 99.9% | +42.5 pts | 100 | $392K |
| 5 | Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Billy Harris vs Dalibor Svrcina | 0.1% | −50.0 pts | 100 | $239K |
| 6 | Wuning 3: Luca Castelnuovo vs Akira Santillan | 0.1% | −50.0 pts | 100 | $113K |
| 7 | LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner | 99.9% | +44.5 pts | 99 | $1.07M |
| 8 | LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | 0.1% | −29.9 pts | 99 | $478K |
| 9 | China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Ann Li | 0.1% | −69.5 pts | 99 | $156K |
| 10 | LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | 99.9% | +44.5 pts | 99 | $905K |
Largest Trades
The largest recorded execution was $1.19M on Polymarket in Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?, followed by $690K in Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers. Size and price impact are measured separately; the tables show the price five minutes after each trade.
| Venue | Market | Side | Notional | Price | Time (ET) | 5m move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? | YES | $1.19M | 100% | 17:03 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | NO | $690K | 69% | 17:13 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | NO | $386K | 100% | 16:17 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | NO | $383K | 100% | 16:17 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Lions vs. Panthers | NO | $340K | 34% | 20:12 ET | — |
| Kalshi | San Francisco wins | YES | $128K | 58% | 10:49 ET | +1.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Jaume Munar wins | YES | $119K | 46% | 04:25 ET | −3.0 pts |
| Kalshi | San Francisco wins | YES | $116K | 58% | 10:52 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Will the Philadelphia pro football team win at least 11 games this season? | NO | $116K | 58% | 18:02 ET | −0.5 pts |
| Kalshi | yes Cleveland,yes Arizona,yes Denver,yes Green Bay,yes Indianapolis,yes Cincinnati,yes Kansas City,yes Los Angeles C,yes New England,yes Atlanta | NO | $99,710 | 100% | 13:40 ET | −0.1 pts |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 shows the widest disagreement: Kalshi 13.5% versus Polymarket 17.8%, a 4.3 pt gap. Gaps can reflect rule differences, fees and venue access as well as differing views.
| Contract | Grade | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 13.5% | 17.8% | 4.3 pts |
| Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.6 pts |
| Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 13.5% | 16.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 16.5% | 14.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.7% | 0.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.7% | 5.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 7.8% | 6.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | B | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.8 pts |
Cross-Market Opportunities
No Grade A pair currently shows a positive theoretical edge from executable prices.
Five Markets to Watch Today
Each pick below is selected by a different signal: movement significance, cross-venue disagreement and trade size.
- Jie Cui wins Most significant Kalshi move
- Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot Most significant Polymarket move
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 Largest cross-venue disagreement
- Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? Largest trade of the session
- Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 5%? Runner-up significant move
Methodology and Timestamp
Tables are computed from Kalshi and Polymarket public market data at the snapshot time. Movement is in percentage points; significance, impact and evidence scores are described on the methodology page.
Snapshot frozen Oct 5, 08:06 ET ET (2026-10-05 12:06 UTC). Evidence hash 53f6e4564bc41216.