Prediction Markets Morning — 2026-09-22
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
The Overnight Picture
Will it rain in Newark on Sep 22, 2026? moved +74.0 pts to 99.0%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Kalshi. Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BBL (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group B moved −53.5 pts to 0.1%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Polymarket. 1 matched contracts show gaps of at least 5 pts between Kalshi and Polymarket.
Top Kalshi Movers
Will it rain in Newark on Sep 22, 2026? (+74.0 pts to 99.0%); Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 100 ? (+94.5 pts to 97.5%); Will it rain in Trenton on Sep 22, 2026? (+40.0 pts to 99.0%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will it rain in Newark on Sep 22, 2026? | 99.0% | +74.0 pts | 100 | $21,984 |
| 2 | Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 100 ? | 97.5% | +94.5 pts | 96 | $345 |
| 3 | Will it rain in Trenton on Sep 22, 2026? | 99.0% | +40.0 pts | 95 | $7,217 |
| 4 | Bitcoin price on Sep 25, 2026? | 75.0% | +20.0 pts | 79 | $11,646 |
| 5 | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in September 2026? | 40.5% | +14.5 pts | 74 | $6,280 |
| 6 | Bitcoin price on Sep 25, 2026? | 62.5% | +18.5 pts | 73 | $53,958 |
| 7 | Bitcoin price on Sep 25, 2026? | 88.5% | +11.5 pts | 71 | $28,522 |
| 8 | Will it rain in Philadelphia on Sep 22, 2026? | 99.0% | +16.0 pts | 71 | $7,185 |
| 9 | Will Trump say "Zohran / Mamdani" before Oct 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +16.0 pts | 70 | $6,672 |
| 10 | Bitcoin price on Sep 25, 2026? | 95.0% | +11.0 pts | 70 | $22,187 |
Top Polymarket Movers
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BBL (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group B (−53.5 pts to 0.1%); LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B (+31.4 pts to 99.9%); LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B (+48.0 pts to 99.9%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BBL (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group B | 0.1% | −53.5 pts | 100 | $173K |
| 2 | LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B | 99.9% | +31.4 pts | 100 | $209K |
| 3 | LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B | 99.9% | +48.0 pts | 100 | $268K |
| 4 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | 78.0% | +46.5 pts | 100 | $89,343 |
| 5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 22? | 97.4% | +37.8 pts | 100 | $166K |
| 6 | Singapore Open: Donna Vekic vs Xinyu Wang | 0.1% | −48.0 pts | 100 | $162K |
| 7 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | 99.9% | +39.6 pts | 100 | $60,877 |
| 8 | St. Tropez: David Jorda Sanchis vs Harry Wendelken | 95.2% | +68.7 pts | 99 | $84,343 |
| 9 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | 97.0% | +30.6 pts | 99 | $73,946 |
| 10 | Ankara: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Anastasia Gasanova | 0.1% | −27.4 pts | 97 | $190K |
Largest Trades
The largest recorded execution was $390K on Polymarket in Giants vs. Rams, followed by $282K in Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5. Size and price impact are measured separately; the tables show the price five minutes after each trade.
| Venue | Market | Side | Notional | Price | Time (ET) | 5m move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Giants vs. Rams | NO | $390K | 72% | 19:39 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5 | NO | $282K | 51% | 16:46 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Giants vs. Rams | NO | $243K | 72% | 20:12 ET | −8.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5 | NO | $208K | 51% | 16:53 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Spread: Rams (-6.5) | YES | $133K | 51% | 19:17 ET | +1.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027? | NO | $112K | 92% | 14:10 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | NO | $92,170 | 100% | 22:01 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Los Angeles R wins | YES | $69,300 | 99% | 22:36 ET | +0.5 pts |
| Kalshi | Los Angeles R wins by over 6.5 points? | YES | $68,357 | 52% | 11:16 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Los Angeles R wins by over 6.5 points? | YES | $59,370 | 53% | 13:12 ET | 0.0 pts |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 shows the widest disagreement: Kalshi 26.0% versus Polymarket 0.1%, a 25.9 pt gap. Gaps can reflect rule differences, fees and venue access as well as differing views.
| Contract | Grade | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | B | 26.0% | 0.1% | 25.9 pts |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 15.5% | 18.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026 | B | 3.0% | 0.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.8% | 0.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 5.5% | 7.0% | 1.6 pts |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.7% | 6.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 16.5% | 15.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8 pts |
Cross-Market Opportunities
No Grade A pair currently shows a positive theoretical edge from executable prices.
Five Markets to Watch Today
Each pick below is selected by a different signal: movement significance, cross-venue disagreement and trade size.
- Will it rain in Newark on Sep 22, 2026? Most significant Kalshi move
- Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BBL (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group B Most significant Polymarket move
- Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 Largest cross-venue disagreement
- Giants vs. Rams Largest trade of the session
- Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 100 ? Runner-up significant move
Methodology and Timestamp
Tables are computed from Kalshi and Polymarket public market data at the snapshot time. Movement is in percentage points; significance, impact and evidence scores are described on the methodology page.
Snapshot frozen Sep 22, 08:03 ET ET (2026-09-22 12:03 UTC). Evidence hash 03efadc7ac37b907.