Prediction Markets Morning — 2026-09-18
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
The Overnight Picture
Will it rain in Columbus on Sep 18, 2026? moved +94.0 pts to 99.0%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Kalshi. LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner moved −44.5 pts to 0.1%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Polymarket. No matched contracts show gaps of 5 pts or more.
Top Kalshi Movers
Will it rain in Columbus on Sep 18, 2026? (+94.0 pts to 99.0%); Will Raye perform at MTV Video Music Awards 2026? (+75.0 pts to 99.0%); Will Any member of GENER8ION perform at MTV Video Music Awards 2026? (+73.0 pts to 99.0%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will it rain in Columbus on Sep 18, 2026? | 99.0% | +94.0 pts | 100 | $14,632 |
| 2 | Will Raye perform at MTV Video Music Awards 2026? | 99.0% | +75.0 pts | 100 | $6,456 |
| 3 | Will Any member of GENER8ION perform at MTV Video Music Awards 2026? | 99.0% | +73.0 pts | 99 | $3,798 |
| 4 | Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" before Sep 21, 2026? | 99.0% | +59.0 pts | 99 | $10,367 |
| 5 | Will there be at least 8 presidential actions in the week of Sep 13, 2026? | 99.0% | +59.0 pts | 99 | $8,663 |
| 6 | Bitcoin price on Sep 18, 2026? | 94.0% | +54.0 pts | 98 | $194K |
| 7 | Will Trump say "Pelosi" before Oct 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +62.0 pts | 97 | $1,650 |
| 8 | SOL price on Sep 18, 2026? | 96.5% | +63.5 pts | 96 | $1,413 |
| 9 | Will LISA perform at MTV Video Music Awards 2026? | 99.0% | +38.0 pts | 92 | $3,255 |
| 10 | Will Trump say "Golf / Golfer / Golfing" before Sep 21, 2026? | 99.0% | +36.0 pts | 91 | $3,921 |
Top Polymarket Movers
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner (−44.5 pts to 0.1%); LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner (−44.5 pts to 0.1%); Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group B (+44.0 pts to 99.9%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | 0.1% | −44.5 pts | 100 | $906K |
| 2 | LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | 0.1% | −44.5 pts | 100 | $1.39M |
| 3 | Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group B | 99.9% | +44.0 pts | 100 | $352K |
| 4 | Guangzhou: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Petr Bar Biryukov | 91.0% | +36.5 pts | 100 | $186K |
| 5 | Counter-Strike: BBL vs Infinite (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group B | 97.8% | +44.3 pts | 100 | $88,237 |
| 6 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Marat Sharipov | 0.1% | −37.5 pts | 100 | $314K |
| 7 | Valorant: FENNEL Female vs Team Falcons VEGA (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Pacific Playoffs | 99.9% | +74.0 pts | 100 | $35,725 |
| 8 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 18? | 64.5% | +51.0 pts | 100 | $64,868 |
| 9 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18? | 96.4% | +46.4 pts | 100 | $111K |
| 10 | KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz | 98.0% | +52.0 pts | 100 | $37,914 |
Largest Trades
The largest recorded execution was $3.27M on Polymarket in Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?, followed by $1.99M in Lions vs. Bills. Size and price impact are measured separately; the tables show the price five minutes after each trade.
| Venue | Market | Side | Notional | Price | Time (ET) | 5m move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? | YES | $3.27M | 100% | 15:05 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Lions vs. Bills | NO | $1.99M | 70% | 16:28 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? | YES | $702K | 66% | 12:11 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Lions vs. Bills | NO | $699K | 71% | 16:28 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Lions vs. Bills | NO | $692K | 70% | 16:30 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Will Republicans win the House in 2026? | NO | $135K | 89% | 17:12 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Josh Allen: 1+ touchdowns | YES | $125K | 49% | 08:45 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Buffalo wins by over 5.5 points? | NO | $111K | 51% | 16:22 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Manchester City To Advance | YES | $97,000 | 97% | 11:13 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? | YES | $70,000 | 56% | 14:55 ET | +2.0 pts |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 shows the widest disagreement: Kalshi 15.5% versus Polymarket 18.4%, a 3.0 pt gap. Gaps can reflect rule differences, fees and venue access as well as differing views.
| Contract | Grade | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 15.5% | 18.4% | 3.0 pts |
| Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 13.5% | 16.0% | 2.5 pts |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.9% | 0.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 8.2% | 9.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.7% | 6.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.8% | 2.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6 pts |
Cross-Market Opportunities
No Grade A pair currently shows a positive theoretical edge from executable prices.
Five Markets to Watch Today
Each pick below is selected by a different signal: movement significance, cross-venue disagreement and trade size.
- Will it rain in Columbus on Sep 18, 2026? Most significant Kalshi move
- LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Most significant Polymarket move
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 Largest cross-venue disagreement
- Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? Largest trade of the session
- Will Raye perform at MTV Video Music Awards 2026? Runner-up significant move
Methodology and Timestamp
Tables are computed from Kalshi and Polymarket public market data at the snapshot time. Movement is in percentage points; significance, impact and evidence scores are described on the methodology page.
Snapshot frozen Sep 18, 08:03 ET ET (2026-09-18 12:03 UTC). Evidence hash 4e898914356751f2.