Prediction Markets Morning — 2026-09-15
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
The Overnight Picture
Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Sep 14, 2026? moved +82.0 pts to 99.0%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Kalshi. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 15? moved −56.1 pts to 5.4%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Polymarket. No matched contracts show gaps of 5 pts or more.
Top Kalshi Movers
Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Sep 14, 2026? (+82.0 pts to 99.0%); Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Sep 14, 2026? (+60.0 pts to 99.0%); Miami first 5 innings winner (+58.0 pts to 99.0%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +82.0 pts | 100 | $9,451 |
| 2 | Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +60.0 pts | 100 | $54,547 |
| 3 | Miami first 5 innings winner | 99.0% | +58.0 pts | 100 | $56,517 |
| 4 | Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +50.0 pts | 100 | $81,574 |
| 5 | Will the maximum temperature be 101-102° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +67.0 pts | 100 | $19,661 |
| 6 | Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +66.0 pts | 99 | $5,430 |
| 7 | Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +52.0 pts | 99 | $14,959 |
| 8 | Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +54.0 pts | 99 | $10,819 |
| 9 | Will the maximum temperature be 74-75° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +42.0 pts | 99 | $47,829 |
| 10 | Will the maximum temperature be 95-96° on Sep 14, 2026? | 99.0% | +61.0 pts | 99 | $5,094 |
Top Polymarket Movers
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 15? (−56.1 pts to 5.4%); Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-09-15? (+58.5 pts to 99.9%); Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 15? (+70.5 pts to 99.9%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 15? | 5.4% | −56.1 pts | 100 | $85,204 |
| 2 | Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-09-15? | 99.9% | +58.5 pts | 100 | $97,404 |
| 3 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 15? | 99.9% | +70.5 pts | 100 | $24,210 |
| 4 | Will Daejeon Citizen FC win on 2026-09-15? | 99.9% | +56.0 pts | 100 | $69,809 |
| 5 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 15? | 2.4% | −48.1 pts | 100 | $87,757 |
| 6 | Will Beijing Guoan win on 2026-09-15? | 97.0% | +47.0 pts | 100 | $75,679 |
| 7 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 15? | 99.9% | +78.5 pts | 100 | $12,301 |
| 8 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 15? | 9.0% | −51.0 pts | 100 | $38,932 |
| 9 | Kashima Antlers vs. Newcastle United Jets: O/U 3.5 | 99.9% | +56.0 pts | 100 | $17,650 |
| 10 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 15? | 98.5% | +57.5 pts | 99 | $4,169 |
Largest Trades
The largest recorded execution was $4.85M on Polymarket in Broncos vs. Chiefs, followed by $113K in Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?. Size and price impact are measured separately; the tables show the price five minutes after each trade.
| Venue | Market | Side | Notional | Price | Time (ET) | 5m move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Broncos vs. Chiefs | NO | $4.85M | 100% | 23:22 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | YES | $113K | 87% | 09:18 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | YES | $101K | 82% | 04:06 ET | +1.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | NO | $100K | 97% | 03:36 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-15? | NO | $100K | 95% | 09:18 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Francesca Jones wins | YES | $4,388 | 81% | 07:11 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Over 11.5 runs scored | YES | $4,210 | 80% | 23:46 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Luka Pavlovic wins | YES | $3,353 | 99% | 00:31 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Over 11.5 runs scored | YES | $2,933 | 53% | 23:35 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Los Angeles A wins by over 1.5 runs? | YES | $2,931 | 99% | 00:07 ET | — |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree
No matched contracts currently show a meaningful gap.
Cross-Market Opportunities
No Grade A pair currently shows a positive theoretical edge from executable prices.
What Social Media Is Talking About
Social data for tracked markets is not available for this window.
Markets Moving Before the Conversation
No tracked market repriced materially ahead of the public conversation in this window.
Conversation Moving Before the Markets
No tracked topic showed conversation leading price in this window.
Five Markets to Watch Today
Each pick below is selected by a different signal: movement significance, cross-venue disagreement, social acceleration and trade size.
- Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Sep 14, 2026? Most significant Kalshi move
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 15? Most significant Polymarket move
- Broncos vs. Chiefs Largest trade of the session
- Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Sep 14, 2026? Runner-up significant move
- Miami first 5 innings winner Significant move
Methodology and Timestamp
Tables are computed from Kalshi and Polymarket public market data and Bluesky public search at the snapshot time. Movement is in percentage points; significance, impact and evidence scores are described on the methodology page.
Snapshot frozen Sep 15, 10:02 ET ET (2026-09-15 14:02 UTC). Evidence hash e6939ef17d6c2d94.